A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
